All Hail to the Year '98

The Newcomer Rich in Promise.

Glowing Prospect for Harmony and Prosperity.

THINKERS’ FORECASTS

Every Channel of Human Achievement a Royal Road of Progress.

Ring out the old, ring in the new! The old year brought many gifts that sped us many lengths on the road of progress. The new arrives with an even greater store of promises. The half achieved marvels of the past may be rounded out to completion. New marvels which we only dimly conceive of will loom within our vision. The unexpected will happen, as it always does. The Herald has been at pains to collect from leading authorities in all lines of human activity their forecast of the wonders to be.

THE year 1898 opens with wars and rumors of wars. Nevertheless it may close in peace. Hope already appears in the horizon of Cuba. The long and deadly contest seems nearing its end. Whether the close be autonomy under Spain or absolute independence, the havoc and disaster which have preyed upon the resources of the island will cease, and a new era of prosperity will dawn.

The war cloud in Asia is the most threatening portent of the future. It would be a rash prophet who would attempt to hazard a guess as to what will be the outcome.

Whatever happens the United States, we may be assured, will remain at peace with the world. It may be forced to maintain its dignity and its interests in the East by a show of force, but actual force is not likely to be required. It may annex Hawaii, or even Cuba, but it will do so with the consent of the representative governments. No chapter in our history will be written in blood. The prosperity now with us must continue throughout the year.

Mr. Henry Clews on the New Year’s Promise.

Mr. Henry Clews sanguinely informs the Herald that 1898 promises to be one of the most active business years in the history of this city. “It may be safely expected,” he says, “to turn out to be a realization of an expansion of business for which the recovery of 1897 has but served to prepare the way. During the five years that our material interests have been in a condition of collapse we have made an addition of 8,000,000 to our population, most of which must be regarded as going to the increase of our productive capacity—to swell the production of our manufactures rather than of agricultural produce. Within this period we have been subjected to a necessity for diminishing the costs of production which, together with the new productive inventions, has enabled us to adapt ourselves to the constantly declining tendency of prices; and conspicuous facts clearly demonstrate that, in certain important industries, we have already reached a position where we can compete successfully in the foreign markets with the foremost industrial nations of the world.

“This an achievement of stupendous importance. It now only remains that we find a breadth of new markets sufficient for our enlarging surplus of manufactures. Most opportunely, the drift of political events is placing that essential desideratum within our reach. The events of each successive day are making it more certain that the 400,000,000 of Chinese population are to be placed within reach of the industrial nations. This fact means that 1898 is to be a year distinguished in history as the opening of a great new commercial era. For us it remains to see to it that no opportunities are lost through our supineness for gaining our due share in this prospective new commerce.”

Mr. Louis Windmuller’s Optimistic Forecast.

Mr. Louis Windmuller, speaking with similar confidence, indicates the factors that will make this progress.

“Abundant crops,” he says, “have increased receipts of railroads and other carriers. The crop of cereals was not alone large, but it sold at remunerative prices, and enabled farmers to pay considerable portions of their old debts. They soon ought to feel rich enough to buy necessaries, and even certain luxuries, which they were obliged to dispense with as long as their products brought only from fifty to seventy-five per cent of present market values.

“Cotton, although low in price, is abundant in quantity and the net proceeds must be satisfactory to a majority of the planters. Southern manufacturers of cotton goods know how to avail themselves of the opportunity to cheap raw material combined with cheap labor. Makers of Southern iron have begun successfully to compete with the English in all markets of the world. Unless some unforeseen complication with a foreign nation should arise, confidence is not likely to be disturbed.

“When our European creditors appreciate the evident disposition of the majority of our legislators to take no step by which the standard of our currency could be debased, they are more likely to buy than to sell American securities. As soon as foreign capital once more begins to flow this way it will swell the balance of trade in our favor to unprecedented figures, enlarging the already abundant supply of money so as to meet every legitimate demand. There is no danger that any meritorious enterprise will have to suffer in 1898 for want of sufficient accommodation.”

New York’s New Era.

To New Yorkers New York is necessarily the most interesting spot in the world. The mightiest of foreign wars will not move us more than the civic struggles of factions here. We are entering upon a new era in our history with the inauguration of a new Mayor over a new and greater, New York, which is bound before long to outrank in number of inhabitants and in commercial and political importance its largest rivals in the world.

The voters have decided that the interests of this great new city should be intrusted to the democratic party. It is only natural that the defeated should view with some trepidation the tremendous responsibilities handed over to a party which they mistrust.

But even among the defeated there are many wise and thoughtful men who believe that the victors will prove worthy of their trust. Colonel George E. Waring, Jr., the frankest and most outspoken of the reformers who have controlled the city during the last two years, emphatically announces his discovery that, even Tammany chieftains are human beings whose greatest desire is to win the good will of their fellow citizens. He fears no return to the evils of the past. He makes a hopeful forecast of New York’s immediate future.

It may be interesting to contrast his views with those of a foreign journalist and political writer now in New York, who may be supposed to have no local partialities to mar his vision.

A Foreign Journalist on Tammany’s Future.

Mr. Julius M. Stanford, of London, is the writer in question. When seen at the Astor House he cheerfully volunteered his views as to the prospects of New York in the near future.

“I foretold the success of Tammany in the last election. It was not a difficult task, with Mr. Low and Mr. Platt pulling against each other, and I say now that Tammany will be so thoroughly intrenched by the time the next election comes around that nothing short of a miracle will dislodge her.

“But troubles are in store for Tammany, and 1898 will see their rapid development.

“The patronage that the great city that New York now is is sure to cause contention in the pack of hungry tigers that are after it. There will most certainly be all sorts of jealousies, with a feeling on the part of factions that they are not getting their share, and the leaders will have to show a high grade of generalship if they expect to preserve harmony. Harmony will not be preserved, but discord will not bring disruption.

“The situation that I have in mind is shown by the clever cartoon in the Herald recently, where the law breakers were waiting for the signal that would allow them to rush into the Tenderloin. There is where the conflict will come between Mr. Van Wyck and the lower elements of your city that made his election possible. The voice of these elements was heard in the words that condemned reform to the mythical place of everlasting punishment. They are looking for license under democratic rule, and expect laws and regulations enacted and made for good conduct and the suppression of vice to be winked at, or even worse, they expect the police to have their eyes so tightly closed that they can see no violations of law.

What Mayor Van Wyck Must Contend With.

“Then those who are within even so distant reach of public funds will be expecting and working for the methods of the Tweed administration. With all of this Mr. Van Wyck will have to contend. If he asserts himself and insists upon the impartial and rigid enforcement of all proper laws and regulations he will be weakened in his own party; and if he gives way to the prevailing sentiment of those who elected him he will arouse public sentiment against him and precipitate a political revolution that will once more overthrow Tammany. It is likely that under the advice of party leaders he will try to pursue a middle course and give an administration that will be weak through an effort to avoid the methods of hated reform, while upholding existing laws, in appearance at least, sufficiently not to entirely forfeit the respect of the decent element.

Perhaps Tammany may have the honor of introducing into this city the ideal policeman, with a military training, whose courtesy under all circumstances will make him a boon to the well meaning, as his alertness, intelligence and courage will be a terror to the evil doer. Another great civic boon which might add a reflected glory upon Tammany is that of securing for the tall buildings of the city elevator facilities which will be facile only in legitimate ascent and descent, without any sudden precipitation of passengers to an awful doom.

Startling Scientific Developments.

Science, in fact, is the goal toward which the highest mental energies of the race are now bent. With Edison and Tesla in the prime of their powers, with younger men of extraordinary abilities coming to the front at the very threshold of the new year, we may expect startling developments in 1898.

As far back as 1890 Edison predicted that he would produce “such a happy combination of electricity and photography that a man can sit in his own parlor and see reproduced on a screen the forms of the players in an opera produced on a distant stage, and as he sees their movements he will hear the sound of their voices as they talk or sing or laugh. To the sporting fraternity I can say that before long it will be possible to apply this system to prize fights and boxing exhibitions. The whole scene, with the comments of the spectators, the talk of the seconds, the noise of the blows and so on, will be faithfully transferred.”

The world scoffed. But the kinetoscope came out shortly afterward and realized a part of these predictions. The vitascope followed with an additional fulfilment. The great prize fight of last year is even now being reproduced to the eye in every large city in the country.

Great Problems Awaiting Solution.

Mr. Edison has not yet reached the point where he can make his impact upon the ear simultaneously with the impact on the eye. But Mr. Edison is still a man in the vigor of his intellect. When he has perfected the scheme for which he has temporarily abandoned all other experiments, that of extracting iron ore from unpromising soil, he may turn back his attention to the union of the vitascope with the phonograph, which will accomplish all the marvels that he has predicted. It is within the bounds of possibility that next year may witness this achievement.

The phonograph, or, as it is alternatively known, the graphophone, has made marvellous developments in the way of practical usefulness during the last few months, and it is not impossible that further improvements and a more general knowledge of its capabilities by the public may lead to its introduction in the near future into every business or other office. The merchant or the literary man may find it a valuable adjunct to the typewriter.

Electricity, as a Motive Power.

Mr. Frank T. Sprague, the president of the Sprague Electric Company, declined to make any specific guess as to the various things which electricity might perform in the coming year. But in a general way he was willing to assure me of his belief that “there will be a more remarkable advance in its application as a motive power, and you may prepare to be astonished before the year closes.

“Every recent departure in the transmission and application of electricity as a motive power has quite uniformly been successful in its results, and it cannot be said where the limit is. It is being more and more applied to the moving of cars, as you know from the work now going on in New York, and it is the same all over the country. The managers of the great railways are looking to electricity as the probable successor of the locomotive engine, and before the year has ended you will probably see many changes in this direction.”

Nikola Tesla Tells What We May Expect.

Mr. Nikola Tesla was more specific. He expressed an opinion that remarkable advances may be looked forward to in electricity, not only in its purely scientific aspect, but in its humanitarian, industrial and commercial possibilities.

“If I were to confine myself to the first named,” he said, “I would unhesitatingly assign the greatest importance to such an advance in electrical science as would lead us to the best understanding of nature, its forces and manifestations. A theory demonstrating that there are only longitudinal disturbances or waves produced in the fluid medium which pervades all space, and explaining satisfactorily the apparent transversal character of the waves, would be the most valuable addition to our knowledge of the physical universe. The scientific literature of the last two years particularly affords plenty of evidence that there are a number of scientific men bent upon this task, and I am looking with some confidence to a notable advance in this direction during the next year.

“An immense revolution is in progress before our very eyes, a revolution which, ultimately, will not only determine the prosperity of isolated cities or districts, but even decide the commercial and industrial supremacy of nations. I refer to the electrical development of water power. Nature has richly provided the United States in this direction, and the future inestimable wealth of this country is largely bound up in this source of power. The commercial and industrial world has just begun to feel the influence of electrical water power development, chiefly, perhaps, through the pioneering enterprise at Niagara and the extensive plant now being erected at Massena.

“Of course, I speak only of the prospective value. To give a general idea of this I will illustrate by an example. Although in plants actually existing a horse power may be obtained at the price of $20 per annum, we cannot possibly estimate, when considering all the various uses of power in all ramifications of industry and commerce, a horse power at less than $75 per annum. At Niagara alone, in the rapids and falls, fully five million horse power are available. This might be assumed to represent a yearly revenue valued at, say, $365,000,000, standing for a capital of at least $5,000,000,000, if we make all allowance for the cost of machinery, which is but a small fraction of that capital, and assume development on the spot. There is much opposition at present to destroying the ‘beauty of the falls,’ but our descendants might view things in a different light, when they consider that to run the falls just one day would be equivalent to expending a cool million dollars.

Efficiency of Water Power.

“There are features about the electrical water power development which afford an almost absolute guarantee for its permanency. First of all, it is the most efficient means of obtaining power that is at the disposal of man. Nor is it likely that anything will ever be discovered which will equal such a system in simplicity and efficiency. The physical reason for this high economy lies in the well nigh perfect incompressibility and mobility of the water, as well as of that agent which is vaguely designated as electrical fluid. Then, again, in availing ourselves of the energy of falling water we develop power in an ideal way, without consuming any material.

“The development of water power is hampered now simply by the difficulty of transmission to a distance and the cost such transmission involves. For the last few years the energies of many have been directed to overcome this drawback, and much progress has been made, so that now transmissions at distances of one hundred miles are perfectly practicable, and the success of such undertakings would be guaranteed by the chief electrical companies. But to remove all limits, the transmission must be effected at a minute cost and must be rendered practicable at any distance. It is in this direction that I am looking to the most important development during the coming year.”

Electricity in Agriculture.

Among other commercial possibilities of the electric rays may be mentioned the agricultural. From experiments spasmodically conducted during 1896 and 1897 it has been shown that plants submitted to the action of the arc light by night, as well as sunshine by day, developed in half the time required by the normal process. Lettuce and other salad grasses even ran to seed before edible leaves were formed. The experiments so far have been amateur ones. Yet here is the germ of an idea that science may develop into incalculable efficiency.

The art of transmitting pictures by wire is still in its infancy, but seems to be developing into a stout boyhood that will make 1898 a memorable year.

Another infant science with an equally promising future is that of photography in colors. Recent experiments have shown that this is a possibility; it only remains to perfect the apparatus.

The Outlook for Shipbuilding.

Mr. Herrmann Oelrichs, through his secretary, writes the Herald a mildly optimistic forecast of the future of shipbuilding and of transatlantic passage.

“First—It is expected that shipbuilding during the coming year will be quite active, presuming the settlement of the engineering strike in Great Britain. Partly in consequence of the higher rates of freight from this country shipbuilding has received an impetus, and especially in Great Britain and Germany the tonnage being turned out is very large. Germany has made rapid advances in shipbuilding, as instanced by the successful competition of German yards with British and the successful performances of steamers built in Germany.

“Second—It is difficult to discern the possibility of still further improvement in the time of transatlantic passage, yet the improvement in shipbuilding and the building of engines has been so great that further advance is possible. The famous torpedo boat builder, Schichau, of Elbing and Danzig, Germany, is now constructing a large twin screw express steamer, the Kaiser Friedrich, for the North German Lloyd, of six hundred feet in length and of high speed. The aim of the builder is to construct a vessel that will exceed the speed made by the Kaiser Wilhelm der Grosse, which now holds the world’s record. It remains to be seen whether the efforts made by the Schichau yards will succeed in breaking this record.

Chauncey M. Depew on our Railroads in 1898.

Mr. Chauncey M. Depew thinks that the business prospects for the railroads in the coming year are brighter than they have been for five years. “The European demand for our cereals,” he writes to the Herald, “will continue. So far the railroads have not shared in the advanced price of wheat. The farmer has paid off his mortgages and has more money than for a long time, the elevators have been crowded to their utmost capacity, the ocean steamships have secured full rates, and in many cases advanced their rates, while the railroads, owing to the demoralization which has existed among them, have presented the exceptional and unbusinesslike conditions of having more others than they could do, and yet cutting each others throats to bid for traffic which they had not the facilities to carry. While this condition has injured the earnings of the railroads it has benefited nobody except a few middlemen and speculators. It seems probable that more harmonious relations will prevail for the coming year, and the demoralization which has characterized the past six months be checked.

“I do not look for any faster trains than are now running. Twenty-four hours to Chicago will be the limit for the next twelve months. The public is not yet prepared to pay for the extra cost involved in running a train in twenty hours. It is entirely feasible, however, to make this time, with the improved conditions of roadbed, bridges, cars and locomotives, with perfect safety.

“The last three years have been remarkable for the number of miles of railway and the amount of capitalization thrown into bankruptcy by the hard times. During these years about one-third of the mileage of the United States went into the hands of receivers. The year 1898 will be practically free from receiverships.

“There were fewer miles of railroad constructed in 1897 than in any year, save one, of the past decade. With money plenty and the restoration of confidence, I look for a large extension of mileage during the coming year.

“Taking all the factors in the problem of prophecy, I look to 1898 as a very satisfactory year for the railroads of the United States.”

Financiers Sanguine.

A favorable outlook for the railroads means general prosperity in the stock market. It is reassuring, therefore, to know that Wall street looks confidently and hopefully toward the coming year.

“From a position on change the outlook for listed securities during 1898 is good,” said A. Maynard Lyon, who for more than a quarter of a century has been a conservative actor with Taurus and Ursus in Wall street’s zoological garden. “I don’t mean that I look for a great boom, for it is not likely to come, but I do mean that there is evidence of a prosperity that will keep the wheels of commerce reasonably active, and so put into stock and bond security a money earning capability which will make profits for the payment of interest and dividends.

“The factor of manipulation is one on which no forecast can be made, and it is one that quickens the pulse and causes the greatest animation in Wall street. The controllers of a stock may, regardless of its intrinsic value as money earning property, manipulate it as they would a jumping jack, by pulling a string, causing it to jump high or low as they desire, and so have all Wall street jumping with it; but its unnatural antics have nothing to do with the real value of the property it may represent. The property is simply put in masquerade costume for the benefit of those who control it, and often to the discomfiture of the minor holders.

More Good Roads than Ever.

Mr. Roy Stone, director of the United States Department of Agriculture, informs the Herald that the amount of road building throughout the country will be greatly increased over that of the present year, which was itself almost double that of the preceding year. Two thousand miles of high class gravel or chart roads was the record for 1897. He furnishes statistics of the work accomplished and contemplated in every State in the Union. He shows that Utah, the latest born, is the most liberal of all the States in its plan for road building, requiring nothing of the localities and recognizing that the roads are a matter of State concern. But Massachusetts takes the highest position in actual amount of State road construction, expending annually increasing sums for this purpose and issuing bonds for the payment. In 1897 the State expenditures for this purpose were $800,000.

New York has done very little in the way of actual road building, except on Long Island and Staten Island, where very rapid progress is being made. Fully two hundred miles of stone road will be built on Long Island the coming season.

Should Be a Great Year for the Turf.

From grave to gay! Men of the most diverse minds are interested in sporting matters. At the head of all sports comes the time honored one of horse racing. The future of the turf, especially the imminent future of 1898, is a fit matter for consideration. Mr. H. S. Crickmore, the well known authority, writes thus to the Herald on the subject:

“I see no reason why the season of 1898 should be inferior in any degree to the seasons of 1896 and 1897. On the contrary, there will be, I think, considerable improvement. The laws enacted by the Legislature and carried out by the State Racing Commission will each year be better understood by associations, owners, trainers and others interested in racing, also by the general public, and as the latter contribute each year more liberally to the support of the turf, through the ‘gate’ associations will see their way to add more money not only to the great and popular fixtures, but also to the over night races, which are so necessary for the success of all meetings.

“The entries for the two and three year old fixtures of 1898, which closed for yearlings, show for nearly all events an increase in numbers. Consequently the number of starters will be larger and the value of some of the events increased. In breeding the entries for the two-year-old fixtures show much new blood, especially through foreign stallions, so that races like the National Stallion and Eclipse, at Morris Park; the Expectation and Great American, at Gravesend, and the Double Event and Great Trial, at Sheepshead Bay, will be likely to inspire much enthusiasm and increased interest as the season progresses. As to the three-year-old fixtures, the meeting of such ‘cracks’ as Hamburg, Previous, Plaudit, Handball, Firearm, Laudeman, Lydian, Bowling Brook, Varus, Reprisal and The Huguenot, a mile and over, will not be the least of the attractions until the winning of the Realization shall stamp its winner as the three-year-old of the year.

“As to the aged division, they will have the Metropolitan, Brooklyn and Suburban handicaps to race for, as usual, and keep the knowing ones guessing from the days the weights are published until the winning numbers are hoisted.

“As to your query, ‘What reforms are desirable so as to make racing as popular as it used to be?’ candidly I do not see any necessity for reforms with a view to increase the popularity of racing. That the attendance is not as large as it was in the later ‘eighties’ and early ‘nineties’ is admitted. But that is not the fault of racing. There are other attractions, not only for what is called ‘society,’ but for the general paying public. Bicycles, golf and baseball, the attraction of country homes, the increase in foreign travel—all of these reasons have more or less an influence to lessen the attendance at our race tracks, and there is another, which may be the last but not least, and that is the absence of the old timers want to hear the rattle of the tin boxes, to see the figures on the slates and to hear the shouts of the bookmakers as they proclaim the odds they are willing to lay. It is this element that makes the outlawed tracks of Maryland so popular, but which, once eliminated, will never again be heard in the State of New York.”